The latest episode of The President’s Inbox is live! This week I sat down with my colleague Steven A. Cook, Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies at the Council, to discuss the status and future of the Israel-Hamas war.

Here are five highlights from our discussion:

1.) Israel remains a long way from its stated goal of eradicating Hamas. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other senior Israeli officials have vowed to destroy Hamas. That goal has yet to be achieved and is likely to remain out of reach. Hamas—or some variant of it—will likely always be able to recruit new fighters. In Steven’s view, the more feasible goal is to render “Hamas unable to threaten Israeli security in the same way that they did on October 7.” 

2.) Continued fighting serves Hamas’s interests. The UN Security Council last month passed a resolution—with the United States abstaining—calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. Much of the conversation over that and other calls for a ceasefire have focused on how Israel is conducting its war. But achieving a ceasefire also requires Hamas’s consent. It and other Palestinian extremist groups are holding 134 Israelis hostage. They view these hostages as bargaining chips that they won’t give up unless they get what they want, even if it means more death and destruction for Palestinians in Gaza. Indeed, Hamas leaders believe that Israel’s attacks are helping them by breathing new life into the Palestinian resistance and tarnishing Israel’s image. “The more that the Israelis attack the Gaza Strip,” Steven noted, “more civilians are killed, children are killed, and as this is broadcast on international television and social media, it’s worse for the Israelis, and this is from Hamas’s perspective, a total war and delegitimizing the state of Israel is an important part of that.”

3.) Netanyahu faces growing criticism at home. The criticism is coming from two directions. One is from the families of the hostages in Gaza. They want Netanyahu to do much more to secure the release of their loved ones. The second strand of criticism centers on Israel’s long-standing policy of exempting ultra-Orthodox Jews known as Haredim from mandatory military service. The exemption dates back to the days of David Ben-Gurion and the founding of Israel. Back then, the Haredim were a tiny percentage of Israelis; today, they account for one in seven. The war in Gaza has shown vividly how the burden of the fighting falls unequally across Israeli society. However, the ultra-Orthodox parties in Netanyahu’s government have vowed to bolt the coalition if the exemption is relaxed or eliminated. Meanwhile, Netanyahu has a strong personal incentive to hold his government together. He is immune from prosecution on the criminal charges pending against him as long as he remains prime minister. (Shortly after Steven and I spoke, Benny Gantz, Netanyahu’s primary rival and a member of Israel’s war cabinet, called for Israel to hold elections in September.)

4.) The Biden administration continues to arm Israel even as it increases its public criticism of how the Israeli government is prosecuting the war in Gaza. The Biden administration’s decision to abstain on last week’s Security Council ceasefire resolution angered Netanyahu. He canceled the planned visit of senior Israeli officials to signal his displeasure. Steven said that the abstention “doesn’t sound so earth shatteringly anti-Israel, but what the Israelis objected to was that it did not link the return of hostages with the ceasefire.” Meanwhile, President Joe Biden faces increasing criticism at home, particularly from fellow Democrats, for not matching his criticisms of the way Israel is fighting the war with actions stronger than a Security Council abstention. That criticism will only grow in the wake of the Israeli airstrike, which happened just as the podcast episode was posted, that killed seven aid workers with World Central Kitchen.

5.) The two-state solution is popular with everyone but the Israelis and the Palestinians. The United States and most other governments hope that the resolution of the fighting in Gaza will lay the foundation for the creation of a Palestinian state that will co-exist peacefully with Israel. The prospect for that outcome is dim. Neither the Israelis nor the Palestinians favor a two-state solution. Once the fighting in Gaza ends, calls for a two-state solution could become an irritant in U.S.-Israel relations, at least as long as Joe Biden is president. Steven observed: “I don't see the U.S. government, or any Israeli government aligned here on a two-state solution or day after plans, and I think it's going to have an impact on U.S.-Israel relations.” He added, “I think the politics of U.S.-Israel relations have been changing anyway, and this may just be a forcing issue.”

If you’re looking to read more of Steven’s analysis, check out his Expert Brief for CFR.org about the first five months of the Israel-Hamas war as well as his forthcoming book, The End of Ambition: America’s Past, Present, and Future in the Middle East.